{ "id": "epbcw1jw5x", "slug": "opinion-polling-for-the-next-united-kingdom-general-election", "title": "Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election", "updated": "2026-10-25", "topic_path": [ { "id": "society", "label": "Society and history", "api_url": "https://www.edgepedia.org/api/v1/topics/society" }, { "id": "society.politics", "label": "Politics and government", "api_url": "https://www.edgepedia.org/api/v1/topics/society.politics" }, { "id": "society.politics.elections", "label": "Elections and representation", "api_url": "https://www.edgepedia.org/api/v1/topics/society.politics.elections" }, { "id": "society.politics.elections.events", "label": "Elections and referendums", "api_url": "https://www.edgepedia.org/api/v1/topics/society.politics.elections.events" }, { "id": "society.politics.elections.events.uk-elections", "label": "United Kingdom election events", "api_url": "https://www.edgepedia.org/api/v1/topics/society.politics.elections.events.uk-elections" }, { "id": "society.politics.elections.events.uk-general-elections", "label": "UK general election events", "api_url": "https://www.edgepedia.org/api/v1/topics/society.politics.elections.events.uk-general-elections" }, { "id": "society.politics.elections.events.uk-general-elections.polling-projection-and-reference", "label": "UK general election polling, projection, and reference companions", "api_url": "https://www.edgepedia.org/api/v1/topics/society.politics.elections.events.uk-general-elections.polling-projection-and-reference" } ], "geo": [ { "id": "geo.weu.t2021.society.politics.elections.events.uk-elections", "label": "Western Europe · 2021 and later: United Kingdom election events", "api_url": "https://www.edgepedia.org/api/v1/geo/geo.weu.t2021.society.politics.elections.events.uk-elections", "path": [ { "id": "geo.weu", "label": "Western Europe", "api_url": "https://www.edgepedia.org/api/v1/geo/geo.weu" }, { "id": "geo.weu.t2021", "label": "Western Europe · 2021 and later", "api_url": "https://www.edgepedia.org/api/v1/geo/geo.weu.t2021" }, { "id": "geo.weu.t2021.society", "label": "Society and history", "api_url": "https://www.edgepedia.org/api/v1/geo/geo.weu.t2021.society" }, { "id": "geo.weu.t2021.society.politics", "label": "Politics and government", "api_url": "https://www.edgepedia.org/api/v1/geo/geo.weu.t2021.society.politics" }, { "id": "geo.weu.t2021.society.politics.elections", "label": "Elections and representation", "api_url": "https://www.edgepedia.org/api/v1/geo/geo.weu.t2021.society.politics.elections" }, { "id": "geo.weu.t2021.society.politics.elections.events", "label": "Elections and referendums", "api_url": "https://www.edgepedia.org/api/v1/geo/geo.weu.t2021.society.politics.elections.events" }, { "id": "geo.weu.t2021.society.politics.elections.events.uk-elections", "label": "United Kingdom election events", "api_url": "https://www.edgepedia.org/api/v1/geo/geo.weu.t2021.society.politics.elections.events.uk-elections" } ] } ], "excerpt": "Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election tracks voting intention since the July 2024 election, with Labour leading but declining and Reform UK rising.", "snippet": "Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election tracks voting intention since the July 2024 election, with Labour leading but declining and Reform UK rising.", "node": "society.politics.elections.events.uk-general-elections.polling-projection-and-reference", "markdown": "# Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election\n\nOpinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election consists of regular voting-intention surveys, published averages of those surveys, and seat forecasting models that estimate how the parties would perform if an election were held at the time of fieldwork. Since the July 2024 general election, the polls have shown Labour leading but losing support, [Reform UK](https://www.edgepedia.org/reform-uk) rising to become the main challenger in vote-share terms, and the Conservatives falling to third in most averages. As of October 2026, no general election has been called, so all published figures are hypothetical voting intention rather than campaign polling.\n\n| Key fact | Detail |\n|---|---|\n| Latest polling average | As of 18 October 2026: Labour 26.7%, Reform UK 22.7%, Conservatives 20.4%, Liberal Democrats 10.3%, Greens 10.2%; Labour leads Reform UK by 4.0 points, based on 2,111 polls in the average[1](https://fredcornell.com/latest-uk-polls) |\n| Alternative average | PollCheck's 7-poll moving average as of 10 October 2026 put Labour on 28.1%, Reform UK on 23.4% and the Conservatives on 19.1%[2](https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/gb-polls) |\n| Seat forecast | A YouGov MRP poll in September 2026 projected a hung parliament: Labour 241 seats, Conservatives 130, Reform 123, Liberal Democrats 71, Greens 9, with 326 needed for a majority[3](https://theweek.com/politics/hung-parliament-who-could-form-a-coalition-after-the-next-general-election) |\n| Pollster base | 34 members of the British Polling Council as of April 2024; there is no official regulator of the polling industry in the UK[4](https://post.parliament.uk/general-election-polling-in-the-uk/) |\n| Typical poll size | A standard UK political poll uses between 1,000 and 2,000 adults, giving a margin of error of about ±3 percentage points at the smaller size[5](https://britpolls.co.uk/explainers/polling-methodology/) |\n| 2024 accuracy benchmark | The 2024 election was the UK polling industry's second worst performance ever, after 1992; 6 of the last 9 elections saw at least one party experience a major polling error[6](https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk-general-elections-how-accurate-are-the-polls-updated-with-ge2024-2/) |\n\n## Current polling position\n\n**Voting intention since 2024.** Independent aggregators that track every published poll show a consistent broad picture with variation in detail. The Fred Cornell weighted average, updated 18 October 2026 and drawing on 2,111 polls from 33 pollsters, puts Labour on 26.7%, Reform UK on 22.7%, the Conservatives on 20.4%, the Liberal Democrats on 10.3% and the Greens on 10.2%[1](https://fredcornell.com/latest-uk-polls). PollCheck's 7-poll moving average on 10 October 2026 gave Labour 28.1%, Reform UK 23.4% and the Conservatives 19.1%[2](https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/gb-polls). Individual pollsters differ by several points: in mid-October 2026, YouGov for The Times and [Sky News](https://www.edgepedia.org/sky-news) had Labour on 24% and the Conservatives on 23% with Reform UK on 21%, while Survation had Labour on 30% and Reform UK on 24%[1](https://fredcornell.com/latest-uk-polls).\n\nThe most prolific pollsters in the 90 days to 18 October 2026 were YouGov with 16 published polls, More in Common with 14, Find Out Now with 13, Opinium with 10 and Survation with 9[1](https://fredcornell.com/latest-uk-polls). Some pollsters have stopped or paused regular [Westminster](https://www.edgepedia.org/westminster) polling since 2024; Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Savanta and People Polling last appear in one archive with polls dated 2–3 July 2024, the final days of the last campaign[7](https://roadto326.com/poll-archive).\n\n**Seat projections.** Because the UK's first-past-the-post system converts vote shares into seats unevenly, pollsters publish constituency-level models alongside national figures. A YouGov MRP poll reported in September 2026 projected no party reaching the 326 seats needed for an overall majority: Labour as the largest party on 241 seats, 85 short, with the Conservatives on 130, Reform on 123, the Liberal Democrats on 71 and the Greens on 9[3](https://theweek.com/politics/hung-parliament-who-could-form-a-coalition-after-the-next-general-election). MRP ([multilevel regression](https://www.edgepedia.org/multilevel-regression) with post-stratification) uses large national samples to model how voting intention varies across groups, then combines the model with local data such as census statistics to produce estimates for individual constituencies[4](https://post.parliament.uk/general-election-polling-in-the-uk/).\n\n## How the polls are conducted\n\nMost general election polls ask which party the respondent would vote for in an election held tomorrow. Polls are usually online or telephone surveys of a sample of individuals, and most UK polling is now undertaken online using recruited panels whose demographic details are used to select representative samples[4](https://post.parliament.uk/general-election-polling-in-the-uk/) • [8](https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/faqs-about-polling/). The established norm in Great Britain is a poll of at least 1,000 people, and accuracy depends on the number interviewed rather than the proportion of the population sampled[8](https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/faqs-about-polling/).\n\n**Weighting.** Pollsters apply weights so the achieved sample matches the known make-up of the voting population. Past vote recall is the weighting variable that draws the most controversy: pollsters ask respondents which party they backed in the last general election, and weights are then adjusted until the recalled votes line up with the real outcome, a fix for the well documented tendency of supporters of winning parties to be easier to recruit.[5](https://britpolls.co.uk/explainers/polling-methodology/) Pollsters must also handle turnout, since not everyone who states a voting intention will actually vote, and one party's supporters may be more likely to turn out than another's[8](https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/faqs-about-polling/).\n\n**Methodological change since 2024.** The 2024 result prompted several pollsters to revise their approaches. Ipsos, which had used telephone quota sampling for voting intention since 2008, moved to a KnowledgePanel design after its pre-election test overestimated Labour and underestimated Reform UK; its analysis attributed part of the problem to an unusually high level of refusals, especially among voters aged 65 and over. Its new weighting scheme adds print and digital newspaper readership and constituency type (marginal or non-marginal)[9](https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls/introducing-our-new-voting-intention-methodology). YouGov made a significant switch at the start of the 2024 campaign itself, moving from its traditional approach to a smaller version of its MRP model for regular voting intention figures[10](https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Election_Polling_2024_-_FINAL.pdf).\n\n## The accuracy record\n\n**The 2024 election.** The polls told the story of the 2024 campaign, including the prospect of a Labour landslide and the rise of Reform UK as a serious electoral force, and for each of the remaining parties the average error across polling organizations was within 2 points[11](https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/the-performance-of-the-polls-in-the-2024-general-election/). The actual Labour vote share of 33.7% was close to the polling averages, but Reform UK's final 14.3% was below late polling averages of 17–18%, suggesting some late switching or differential turnout[5](https://britpolls.co.uk/explainers/polling-methodology/). Electoral Calculus's average of polls fielded 28 June to 3 July 2024, covering 31,393 respondents, recorded a noticeable error in the gap between Labour and the Conservatives[12](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls24.html).\n\nIndividual pollsters varied widely. Survation's final telephone poll, fielded 26 June to 3 July 2024 with 1,679 GB adults, showed a large Labour lead, low Conservative support and a strong Reform UK result, and its average error across parties was 1.9%, fourth best among all pollsters[13](https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/ge24-survation-cati-postmortem.pdf). Taken overall, one analysis using a complete record of every poll since 1945 ranks 2024 as the industry's second worst performance, after 1992, when the Conservatives' lead over Labour was underestimated by nearly 9 percentage points[6](https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk-general-elections-how-accurate-are-the-polls-updated-with-ge2024-2/) • [14](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7189/CBP-7189.pdf).\n\n**Longer history.** After the 1992 failure, polling accuracy was perceived as acceptable or high for the 1997, 2001, 2005 and 2010 results. Polling companies were criticized in 2015 and 2017, when many polls did not reflect the outcomes; a 2016 expert panel concluded the primary cause of the 2015 errors was unrepresentative sampling, and the British Polling Council responded by requiring members to publish their weighting variables. Accuracy was again perceived as high in 2019[4](https://post.parliament.uk/general-election-polling-in-the-uk/). A 2018 study of 30,000 general election polls in 45 countries between 1942 and 2017 found no evidence that polling errors had increased over time, though average error had fluctuated[4](https://post.parliament.uk/general-election-polling-in-the-uk/).\n\n## Regulation, funding and interpretation\n\nThere is no official regulator for the polling industry in the UK. Polling organizations may join the British Polling Council, whose members commit to publishing details of their polls including the commissioning client, sample size and geographic coverage, and the Market Research Society; polls published by non-members tend to be viewed with more scepticism[4](https://post.parliament.uk/general-election-polling-in-the-uk/). Election polling is funded by news organizations, television programs, pressure groups, political parties and polling organizations themselves, and the House of Lords Committee on Political Polling and Digital Media recommended that funding sources be declared[4](https://post.parliament.uk/general-election-polling-in-the-uk/).\n\nOne legal restriction applies: the Representation of the People Act 1983 prohibits publishing the results of polls conducted on election day while voting is taking place[4](https://post.parliament.uk/general-election-polling-in-the-uk/). For broadcasters, Ofcom treats opinion polls as evidence of current support but places greater weight on actual electoral performance, reflecting the greater uncertainty of poll figures, which may not translate into votes or seats[15](https://www.ofcom.org.uk/siteassets/resources/documents/tv-radio-and-on-demand/broadcast-guidance/programme-guidance/election-guidance/evidence-of-past-electoral-support-and-evidence-of-current-support-ahead-of-the-various-elections-taking-place-on-7-may-2026.pdf?v=412640).\n\n**Reading the numbers.** Aggregators combine polls differently. Sky News's tracker uses a simple mean of the most recent polls from all British Polling Council members[16](https://news.sky.com/story/will-labour-or-the-conservatives-win-the-next-election-latest-polling-sky-news-live-tracker-12903488), while the Fred Cornell model weights each poll by recency (weight halving every 14 days), sample size, and a pollster reliability score, and treats its output as a weighted average rather than a prediction[17](https://fredcornell.com/methodology). Averaging does not eliminate polling error and introduces its own choices about which polls to include and how to weight them; individual poll results can sometimes convey the range of plausible outcomes better than a single averaged figure[18](https://apnews.com/article/b497bd1015d35ed563e085c8db075802). Known limitations of current aggregation include combining Great Britain-only and UK-wide polls, which can slightly affect SNP and [Plaid Cymru](https://www.edgepedia.org/plaid-cymru) figures, and treating polls with different question wording and turnout filters as measuring the same thing[17](https://fredcornell.com/methodology).\n\n## References\n\n1. [Latest UK Polls — Fred Cornell](https://fredcornell.com/latest-uk-polls)\n2. [UK Opinion Polls 2026: Latest Voting Intention Tracker — PollCheck](https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/gb-polls)\n3. [Hung parliament: who could form a coalition after the next general election? — The Week](https://theweek.com/politics/hung-parliament-who-could-form-a-coalition-after-the-next-general-election)\n4. [General election polling in the UK — Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology](https://post.parliament.uk/general-election-polling-in-the-uk/)\n5. [Polling Methodology Explained: How UK Polls Are Conducted, Weighted and Tested — BritPolls](https://britpolls.co.uk/explainers/polling-methodology/)\n6. [How accurate are opinion polls in the UK? — Nigel Marriott / Marriott Statistics](https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk-general-elections-how-accurate-are-the-polls-updated-with-ge2024-2/)\n7. [UK Opinion Poll Archive Since 2023 — Road to 326](https://roadto326.com/poll-archive)\n8. [FAQs About Polling — British Polling Council](https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/faqs-about-polling/)\n9. [Introducing our new voting intention methodology — Ipsos](https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls/introducing-our-new-voting-intention-methodology)\n10. [YouGov: Election Polling 2024](https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Election_Polling_2024_-_FINAL.pdf)\n11. [The Performance of the Polls in the 2024 General Election — British Polling Council](https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/the-performance-of-the-polls-in-the-2024-general-election/)\n12. [Opinion Polls 2024 — Electoral Calculus](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls24.html)\n13. [Review of Survation's 2024 — British Polling Council](https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/ge24-survation-cati-postmortem.pdf)\n14. [General Election Polling: A Matter of Opinion? — House of Commons Library briefing CBP-7189](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7189/CBP-7189.pdf)\n15. [Evidence of past electoral support and evidence of current support ahead of the elections taking place on 7 May 2026 — Ofcom](https://www.ofcom.org.uk/siteassets/resources/documents/tv-radio-and-on-demand/broadcast-guidance/programme-guidance/election-guidance/evidence-of-past-electoral-support-and-evidence-of-current-support-ahead-of-the-various-elections-taking-place-on-7-may-2026.pdf?v=412640)\n16. [General Election poll tracker — Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/will-labour-or-the-conservatives-win-the-next-election-latest-polling-sky-news-live-tracker-12903488)\n17. [UK Polling Methodology — Fred Cornell](https://fredcornell.com/methodology)\n18. [Will the polls be right in 2024? — Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/b497bd1015d35ed563e085c8db075802)\n\n---\n*Topic: Encyclopedia › Society and history › Politics and government › Elections and representation › Elections and referendums › United Kingdom election events › UK general election events › UK general election polling, projection, and reference companions*\n\n*Initially written Sep 17, 2026 · Reviewed: Sep 20, 2026; Sep 30, 2026; Oct 25, 2026 · Edited: Sep 20, 2026; Oct 11, 2026; Oct 15, 2026; Oct 25, 2026 · Last review: Oct 25, 2026*\n\n*Copyright 2026 EdgeChat AI, a subsidiary of Biostate AI.*\n\nLicense: Edgepedia Community License 1.0, https://www.edgepedia.org/edgepedia/license\n", "same_as": [], "url": "https://www.edgepedia.org/opinion-polling-for-the-next-united-kingdom-general-election", "markdown_url": "https://www.edgepedia.org/opinion-polling-for-the-next-united-kingdom-general-election.md", "license": { "name": "Edgepedia Community License 1.0", "url": "https://www.edgepedia.org/edgepedia/license", "summary": "Free with credit, commercial use included. AI training is open to everyone. For other uses, organizations over USD 100M in revenue or 100M monthly users license separately.", "spdx": "LicenseRef-Edgepedia-Community-1.0" }, "credit": "\"Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election\", Edgepedia (EdgeChat), https://www.edgepedia.org/opinion-polling-for-the-next-united-kingdom-general-election. Edgepedia Community License 1.0.", "credit_md": "\"[Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election](https://www.edgepedia.org/opinion-polling-for-the-next-united-kingdom-general-election)\", Edgepedia (EdgeChat), [https://www.edgepedia.org/opinion-polling-for-the-next-united-kingdom-general-election](https://www.edgepedia.org/opinion-polling-for-the-next-united-kingdom-general-election). [Edgepedia Community License 1.0](https://www.edgepedia.org/edgepedia/license).", "credit_html": "\"Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election\", Edgepedia (EdgeChat), https://www.edgepedia.org/opinion-polling-for-the-next-united-kingdom-general-election. Edgepedia Community License 1.0.", "speakable": "Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election tracks voting intention since the July 2024 election, with Labour leading but declining and Reform UK rising." }