General · EdgepediaSeptember 17, 20265 min read

Next German federal election

The next German federal election will elect the 22nd Bundestag and, under the ordinary four-year cycle, is scheduled for spring 2029, when voters in all 16 Länder go to the polls.¹ It will be the second federal election under the reformed electoral law of 2023, which already applied in 2025, and it will follow a legislative term that began with the constituent session of the 21st Bundestag on 25 March 2025.²

Key fact	Detail
Next election	Spring 2029, all Länder, Bundestag election on a 4-year cycle¹
Legal timing window	A new election must be held no sooner than 46 months and no later than 48 months after the electoral term begins (Article 39 of the Basic Law)²
Current term	21st electoral period, constituent session 25 March 2025²
Bundestag size	630 members, fixed by a June 2023 amendment to the Federal Elections Act³
Electoral system	Two votes: first vote for a constituency candidate, second vote for a Land party list; proportional representation combined with candidate-centered election⁴
Threshold	A party needs more than 5 per cent of second votes nationwide, or at least three constituency seats; parties representing national minorities are exempt⁵
Chancellor	The election does not directly choose the chancellor; the newly elected Bundestag elects the Federal Chancellor⁶

Timing and the legal framework

The Basic Law fixes the election window rather than a calendar date. Article 39, paragraph 1 requires a new election no sooner than 46 months and no later than 48 months after the electoral term begins, and election day must fall on a Sunday or public holiday.² Because the 21st Bundestag held its constituent session on 25 March 2025, an ordinary election falls in early 2029, and the Federal Returning Officer's published calendar lists the Bundestag election for spring 2029 alongside the European Parliament election in the same season.¹^•² The Federal President determines the exact election day once it is set.²

Early dissolution. The Bundestag cannot dissolve itself. An early election becomes possible in two constitutional situations: if no chancellor obtains an absolute majority under Article 63, or if a chancellor's motion for a vote of confidence under Article 68 fails, in which case the Federal President may dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days. New elections must then be held within 60 days.⁷ Early elections have been used four times so far, in 1972, 1983, 2005, and 2025, the last after the collapse of the governing coalition and a failed confidence vote in December 2024 led to the 23 February 2025 election.⁷^•⁸

How the election works

Each voter casts two votes. The first vote (Erststimme) goes to a constituency candidate in one of 299 constituencies; the second vote (Zweitstimme) goes to a party's Land list and is the decisive vote, because it determines each party's overall share of seats and thus which coalition can command a majority for electing the chancellor.⁴^•⁵ Seats are distributed by the Sainte-Laguë/Schepers method, first at federal level and then among the Land lists.⁴

Two rules from the 2023 reform of the Federal Elections Act will apply again in 2029. The Bundestag is capped at 630 members, ending the growth through balance and overhang seats that had pushed the chamber to 736 members after 2021.³^•⁵ And a candidate who tops a constituency is allocated the seat only if it is backed by sufficient second votes; in 2025 this rule left 23 constituency winners without a mandate.⁴^•⁸ The 5 per cent clause remains, with the exception for parties winning at least three constituency seats or representing national minorities.⁵^•⁸

Political context going into 2029

The incumbent government entering the cycle is a coalition of the CDU/CSU and the SPD under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who was elected chancellor by the Bundestag on 6 May 2025 after the three parties adopted a coalition agreement.⁹ The 2025 election that produced this government already reshaped the party landscape: turnout rose to 82.5 per cent, with almost 50 million Germans voting, up from 76.4 per cent in 2021, and the SPD's share of second votes fell to 16.4 per cent, a drop of 9.3 percentage points.¹⁰^•⁹ The Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved in 2025 the best result by a far-right party in Germany since World War II.¹¹

Intermediate tests. State elections between now and the federal vote weigh on the national picture. Elections in September 2026 were expected to bring further gains for the AfD, and on 6 September 2026 the party won a record 44 per cent in Saxony-Anhalt, positioning it to seek the first far-right state government in Germany since World War II.¹²^•¹³ Commentators have described the mid-term votes as tests of whether the CDU-led federal government can hold its reform agenda together against a fragmented Bundesrat and a rising AfD.¹⁴ Reporting in September 2026 described Chancellor Merz as deeply unpopular and his government as struggling to convince voters it can move a stagnating economy, factors that frame the run-up to 2029.¹²

The intervening calendar

Several votes fall between the 2025 and 2029 federal elections. State parliament elections are scheduled in Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin, and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in September 2026; in Schleswig-Holstein, Saarland, North Rhine-Westphalia, Bremen, and Lower Saxony in 2027; and in Bavaria and Hesse in autumn 2028. The Federal Convention (Bundesversammlung), which elect the Federal President, is scheduled for 30 January 2027.¹⁵

References

Initially written Sep 17, 2026 · Reviewed: Sep 30, 2026; Oct 25, 2026 · Edited: Sep 30, 2026; Oct 25, 2026