Next Portuguese legislative election

The next Portuguese legislative election will choose the members of the Assembly of the Republic (Assembleia da República) for the 18th legislature, and is scheduled for September or October 2029 under the normal four-year calendar.^{1 • 2} The preceding election, held on 18 May 2025, produced the 17th legislature, the third snap election in three years.^{3 • 4} A date within the 2029 window is not fixed: the constitution allows the President of the Republic to dissolve the Assembly early, so the election could come sooner if the government falls again.⁵

Setting the date

Portuguese general elections are called by the President of the Republic at least 60 days in advance, or at least 55 days in advance in the case of a dissolution.⁷ For elections opening a new legislature rather than following a dissolution, the law fixes the window between 14 September and 14 October of the year in which the legislature ends, and election day must fall on a Sunday or national holiday.⁷ The National Electoral Commission's planning calendar places the next Assembly election in September or October 2029, alongside the Madeira regional election and local elections in the same window.¹

How the calendar adjusts. Because the 2025 election was early, the legislature's length adjusts to the parliamentary calendar. When the Assembly is dissolved, the newly elected legislature starts a new term whose duration is extended at the beginning by the time needed to complete the legislative session in progress at the date of the election.⁹ Each legislature comprises four one-year legislative sessions, each running from 15 September.^{2 • 10}

How an early election could come about

Dissolution is a free political act of the President of the Republic, taken after hearing the Council of State and the parties represented in Parliament, though the President is not legally bound by the opinions heard.¹¹ Article 172 of the constitution blocks dissolution in three circumstances: in the six months after the Assembly's own election, in the final six months of the President's term of office, and during a state of siege or state of emergency; a decree issued outside these limits is legally nonexistent and produces no effect.⁵ The dissolution decree itself sets the election date, and elections must be held within 60 days of dissolution under the constitution, with the electoral law requiring at least 55 days.¹² Dissolution does not necessarily force the Government's resignation, but it does entail calling new parliamentary elections.¹¹

Recent precedent. In the current democratic framework the Assembly has been dissolved repeatedly: seven times between 1979 and 2011 (1979, 1983, 1985, 1987, 2001, 2004, and 2011), usually after a Prime Minister's resignation or dismissal; the 1987 dissolution followed the approval of a censure motion.¹³ In 2025, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro's minority government lost a confidence vote in March amid a controversy over potential conflicts of interest in the business dealings of his family law firm, triggering the third general election in three years; he denied wrongdoing and contested the election again.^{4 • 14} The Democratic Alliance won the May 2025 ballot but with only 89 of 230 seats, leaving it dependent on opposition votes, and Montenegro publicly appealed for parties to let his government serve a full term.¹⁵ A string of minority governments has been unable to forge alliances that ensure an administration completes its constitutional four-year term without opposition parties teaming up to bring it down.⁴

What happens if the Assembly is dissolved

Until the dissolution decree is published, the Assembly functions normally. After dissolution, full plenary meetings of the 230 deputies cease and the Standing Committee (Comissão Permanente) takes over, chaired by the President of the Assembly and composed of the Vice-Presidents and 49 deputies appointed by all parties in proportion to their representation.¹⁶ Parliamentary committees may meet only to finalize the texts of pending bills.¹⁶ The deputies' mandates and the Standing Committee's powers continue until the first meeting of the new Assembly after the election; the outgoing government meanwhile remains in a caretaker capacity.^{5 • 12}

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic is composed of 230 members, the constitutional maximum, elected for four-year terms by direct universal suffrage of Portuguese citizens registered in Portugal or abroad.^{6 • 17} Deputies are elected from closed lists presented by parties or coalitions in multi-member constituencies, with votes converted into seats by proportional representation and the d'Hondt highest-average rule; the constitution forbids the law from setting any minimum national vote percentage for converting votes into seats.^{6 • 9} The constituencies comprise 18 on the mainland, one each for the Azores and Madeira, and two for Portuguese citizens abroad, one for Europe and one for the rest of the world.¹⁸ Members represent the whole country rather than only the constituencies that elected them, and any Portuguese citizen over 18 may stand, with limited exceptions such as serving judges, active military personnel, and diplomats.⁶

The Assembly must meet by right on the third day after the general results are calculated, so the new legislature is seated within days of the vote.⁹

Context: the 17th legislature and the polls

The 17th legislature, elected on 18 May 2025, has the following composition from the official results: the Democratic Alliance coalition of the PSD and CDS-PP (with the PPM in the Azores) won 89 seats on 31.79% of the vote, Chega 60 seats on 22.76%, and the Socialist Party 58 seats on 22.83%, with the Liberal Initiative (9 seats on 5.36%), Livre (6 seats on 4.07%), the PCP/PEV coalition (3 seats on 2.91%), and single-seat representation for the Left Bloc (1.99%), PAN (1.38%), and JPP (0.33%).⁸ The result delivered another minority government and an unprecedented showing by Chega.¹⁵

Voting-intention polling for the next election is already being tracked by several aggregators. As of the most recent reported figures, the Socialist Party led the polling average on 26.6%, ahead of the Democratic Alliance on 22.8%.¹⁹ Aggregators caution that vote-intention polls are a snapshot, since polling error, house effects, turnout, and late shifts mean the numbers are not a prediction of election day.²⁰

References

1. Calendário, Comissão Nacional de Eleições
2. Portugal, Assembly of the Republic, May 2025 election, IPU Parline
3. Eleições para a Assembleia da República 2025, Comissão Nacional de Eleições
4. Portugal's government loses confidence vote, triggering early election amid prolonged instability, AP News
5. Artigo 172.º (Dissolução), Constituição da República Portuguesa, DGSL
6. Electoral system, Assembleia da República
7. Lei Eleitoral para a Assembleia da República, Capítulo I, Diário da República
8. Election results, 17th Legislature, Assembleia da República
9. Constitution of the Portuguese Republic (2005), Wikisource translation
10. How the Parliament works, Assembleia da República
11. Dissolução da Assembleia da República, Diário da República Lexionário
12. Early Parliamentary Elections, 18 May 2025, OSCE/ODIHR report
13. A Assembleia no período de dissolução, ComunicAR
14. Portugal's election result falls short of ending political instability, AP News
15. Portugal's election brings another minority government and a far-right rise, AP News
16. Dissolução da Assembleia da República: O que acontece agora?, Assembleia da República
17. Members, Assembleia da República
18. Portugal Early Parliamentary Elections 2025, OSCE/ODIHR final report
19. Portugal Election Polls, Poliwave
20. Portugal polling tracker, Bismuth Media Polls
21. Constituição da República Portuguesa

Initially written Sep 17, 2026 · Reviewed: Oct 25, 2026 · Edited: Oct 15, 2026; Oct 25, 2026

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