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Climate modelling and future projections

22 articles

Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project

The Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) was a set of CMIP6 climate model experiments quantifying the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases.

Climate storyline approach

The climate storyline approach, introduced by Ted Shepherd and colleagues in 2018, represents climate uncertainty through physically self-consistent narratives of events, and was adopted by the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

CMCC-ESM

CMCC-ESM is an Earth system model developed by the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change in Italy; its current version, CMCC-ESM2, contributed historical and scenario simulations to CMIP6 used in international climate assessments.

CMIP3

CMIP3, the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, was a collection of global climate model simulations whose archived output supported the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

Community Earth System Model

The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is a coupled global climate model simulating Earth's past, present, and future, supported by the National Science Foundation and run by NCAR.

CORDEX

CORDEX (the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) is a World Climate Research Programme program, initiated in 2009, coordinating regional climate model downscaling across 14 continental domains worldwide.

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an international effort under the World Climate Research Programme that coordinates standard climate model experiments and distributes multi-model archives, a key IPCC input.

Emergent constraint

An emergent constraint is a relationship across an ensemble of climate models between an observable present-day climate quantity and a projected future change, letting observations narrow projections.

GFDL CM models

The GFDL CM models are a family of global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey, simulating past, present, and future climate.

GISS-E2

GISS-E2 is a global climate model developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, built on the ModelE atmospheric code, and coupled to alternative ocean models.

High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project

The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) was a CMIP6-endorsed project that applied, for the first time, a multi-model approach to studying horizontal resolution in global climate models.

IPSL-CM

IPSL-CM is a family of coupled climate and Earth system models developed by the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace in Paris, contributing to CMIP3, CMIP6, and IPCC reports.

ISIMIP

ISIMIP (the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) is a climate impact research framework providing common climate forcing datasets and consistent modeling protocols so impact models can be compared across sectors and scales.

MPI-ESM

MPI-ESM (Max Planck Institute Earth System Model) is a coupled Earth system model developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, serving as its CMIP5 contribution.

Pattern scaling

Pattern scaling is a climate-modeling approximation in which the regional pattern of climate change is assumed constant and scaled linearly with global mean warming, first proposed by Santer et al. in 1990.

Perturbed parameter ensemble

A perturbed parameter ensemble, or perturbed physics ensemble, is a climate modeling method that runs one model many times with varied parameter values to sample uncertainty.

Representative Concentration Pathway

A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is one of four greenhouse gas and land use scenarios used in climate modeling, named for its radiative forcing by 2100.

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways are five scenarios of 21st-century societal, economic, and demographic development created by climate researchers for the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report and CMIP6.

Single Model Large Ensemble

A single model large ensemble, formally a single-model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE), is a set of many climate simulations run with one climate model under one forcing scenario.

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) is a 2000 IPCC report presenting 40 scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions to 2100, serving as standard inputs for climate projections until replaced by the RCPs.

Time of Emergence

Time of emergence (ToE) is the time when an anthropogenic climate change signal emerges from natural climate variability in a given region, formalized by Ed Hawkins and Rowan Sutton in 2012.

UK Climate Projections

The UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) are the Met Office's national climate projections, observations, and tools covering how the UK's climate is likely to change through 2100, replacing UKCP09.